Thanks for this thoughtful article. There is no doubt that Russia will not run out of soldiers, but Ukraine will, which is a matter of time. When it comes to equipment, the UKR is dependent on the west to a very high percentage. But the West will soon be at odds over how to confront the aggressor. With strong support from the US and Britain, the "New West in the East" confronts the "Old West in Central and Western Europe" in a way that frustrates the old powers-that-be. In summary: is it a matter of time before the Ukrainian resistance collapses?
No, it is not a matter of time until ukrainian resistance collapses, because it never will. And why should it? It is the end of the russian so-called federation for sure. we have a future of a new Israel and North Korea with Oil in Europe
I suspect that France, Germany, and the surprisingly willing Italy will be pulled along by those in the West (Canada, U.S., UK) and East (Poland, Romania, Baltics) and there will be no division. The Russian people's enthusiasm for war - diminishes monthly. The number of Russians killed breached the 100,000 level a few months ago - as it heads toward 400,000, 500,000, 1,000,000 deaths - due to the arrival in Ukraine of more and more long range missiles, F-16 planes, tanks superior to anything Russia's ever seen - the willingness of the Kremlin to continue will wilt.
There is already is a growing discussion and enthusiasm in America to dismantle Russia into many pieces - as the war goes increasingly badly for Russia, keeping Russia's territory entire, will become Putin's dominant motive - and fear of its fragmentation will be the chief reason Putin ceases to wage war in Ukraine and instead simply declares that he has taught Ukraine a lesson - and takes the few surviving soldiers back to Russia while he can.
All speculation with little evidence. Those who say A will argue with B... and say there is no nuclear threat from Russia. Unfortunately, these prophets and those who say that there is no faction in the US interested in splitting Russia to pieces will not be responsible and accountable if the opposite of what has been said happens. Facts will tell us the truth, and many more people will die by then.
Assessed the situation of the First World War in GER of that time, where until the end the military said they would win it. After millions of dead, the GER military accused the politicians of treason.
AGAIN: This senseless mutual killing must stop NOW!
The Austrian Peace Academy is an Austrian NGO that works for peace, freedom, the rule of law and human rights without religion playing a role in these aspects, but rather how ordinary people see life and the world.
Thanks to Farida once again for a wonderful column! Hello again to the Austrian Peace Academy! It's not only in America that Russia's diminution is anticipated. Moscow Times's columnists also recognize the near-inevitability of Russia's "defederation". Don't you agree that this will increase the peace of Europe?
From Moscow Times:
The Future Defederation of Russia
All empires eventually fall apart. The Russian Federation is next.
By Alexander Etkind
June 8, 2022
What happened to the Russian Empire? It disintegrated at the end of an imperialist war. What happened to the Soviet Union? It disintegrated at the end of the Cold War. What will happen to the Russian Federation?
The answer is obvious, even if it saddens many. Russian patriotism is such that even those who do not support the Kremlin regime are not ready to recognize the imperial nature of the present Russian state. Even those who consider the present Russian government unjust, incompetent or simply dangerous believe in the survival of the Russian Federation with its present borders. Even people like me, who wish Ukraine a military victory and the Russian rulers an international trial, are not ready to admit that this will consequently lead to the end of the country itself.
Collapse has long been feared and predicted. It could have been slowed down by taking advantage of the favorable economic situation, by relying on a competent government, a skillful diplomatic game or simply by counting on luck. The ruling party had managed to choose a name that reflected its deep fear of disintegration as well as its lack of other values: “United Russia.”
On the international scene, Russia’s partners did not want this disintegration. Some were grateful to the federation for ending еру dangerous and costly Cold War. Others simply resented the changes, whatever they might be, fearing those more than war itself. The collapse that threatens the federation will not happen because of foreign peoples or governments, but against their will and in contradiction to their predictions. It is likely that it will also happen against the will of the Russian population: such problems are not usually solved by voting.
For a long time — two decades — nothing really significant happened in Russia. Everything changed with the second Russian-Ukrainian war, a war that should never have been started by supporters of the idea of a united Russia. For those concerned about the preservation of the federation, the moment of truth has come.
The era of empires is long gone. The empires of the past collapsed after wars and uprisings and gave birth to a multitude of nation-states that emerged on the ruins of their former colonies. Polish-British writer Joseph Conrad held that there was not a single piece of land in the world that had not been colonized.
England, a former Roman colony, became the metropolis of a new empire. Poland, the center of gravity in Eastern Europe, was divided by three hostile states. East Prussia, a former metropolis and the place of royal coronations, became a colony. Earlier, much the same thing had happened to the land of the Tatars. History unfolds without any rules. Empires rise and fall, like waves on a stormy sea.
That said, almost all empires disappeared in the 20th century, in a process that has been called “decolonization.” Empires were defeated by other types of state: national and federal. Contemporary Russia, a nation-state, calls itself a federation, like Germany or Switzerland, when in fact it is behaving like an empire in its hour of decline.
What is the difference between a federation and an empire? A federation is defined by free entrance and exit of its members. Empires are maintained by force, while federations do not oppose their self-dissolution. In the early 20th century, this was called “the right to self-determination, including secession.” This principle was enshrined in the Declaration of the Rights of the Peoples of Russia, adopted by the Bolsheviks in November 1917. Later it disappeared from constitutional texts.
Some “composite” federations have disintegrated without the use of force, such as the Soviet Union and Czechoslovakia. But other cases of disintegration caused civil wars with international interference. This happened earlier in the United States, and it happened before our eyes in Yugoslavia: the forces were unequal, and one party imposed its will on the other. In still other cases, the disintegration was peaceful but wounded pride and aborted ambitions led to deferred violence. This is called revanchism, and it paves the way to a new war.
I am not calling for the collapse of the Russian Federation — I am predicting it, and that makes a difference. Again, the disintegration could have been avoided — it would have been enough not to start a war with Ukraine. But revanchism was stronger than caution. The collapse of this federation — a complex, artificial, highly unequal and increasingly unproductive community — will take place because of its leaders in Moscow, and only because of them.
Those who love the federation; those who think that if it were to disappear, people would be worse off; those who see the idea of a united Russia as the main and even the only political value — all should blame those and only those who started this war.
I am not calling for the collapse of the Russian Federation — I am predicting it...the disintegration could have been avoided — it would have been enough not to start a war with Ukraine.
How many parts will the federation break into, and will these parts correspond to the present delimitations of its republics and provinces? In each case, people will decide.
At the local level, the existing institutions, leaders and borders will have a role to play in the implementation of the “right to self-determination, including secession.” But there are many other determining factors: economic and cultural, domestic and international.
The new states will be diverse: some will be democratic, others authoritarian. All will be linked more to their neighbors, their trading and security partners, than to their old, worn-out and repulsive “kin.”
The territories that belonged to other national entities before becoming part of Russia after the Second World War (East Prussia, parts of Karelia, the Kuril Islands) will leave the federation with undisguised pleasure. Ethnic and religious tensions in particularly complex regions such as the Caucasus may lead to new wars.
With the collapse of the federation, social inequalities, a hallmark of Russia in recent decades, will increase further. The provinces producing raw materials will be richer, and other regions will be poorer. Enjoying freedom, their people will show new creativity. They will start trading in what only free societies can create. They will invent their comparative advantages, new and unique.
History will continue. Sooner or later the international community, which does not like upheavals, will take note of the changes and make an effort to avoid bloodshed.
At this point a peace conference will be held, modeled after the Paris conference of 1918-1919, organized by the victors of the First World War. Russia, which had signed a separate peace agreement in Brest-Litovsk, was not invited.
In the new peace treaty, the neighbors of the new countries will mediate the negotiations: Ukraine, China, Norway, Poland, Finland, Kazakhstan, and others.
Historically more successful federations, such as the European Union and the United States, will have their part to play.
A new Eurasian Treaty will complete the work begun at Versailles a century ago.
An earlier version of this article was published in Desk Russie.
Perhaps you meant to write the opposite of this? "those who say that there is no faction in the US interested in splitting Russia to pieces will not be responsible and accountable if the opposite of what has been said happens". I say there IS a growing number of people who realize that unless Russia is dismantled, war is a constant for Europe - whether in Moldova or Georgia, Ukraine or other Russia neighbors.
So there will be no second wave of mobilisation because there is already a rolling consciption which is covered by the existing decree on partial mobilisation. At the same time there is a decree to increase the size of the armed forces by 30% so where does that 30% come from? Volunteers? So we have permanent war and permanent conscription and the kremlin is slowly drawing down the totalitarian curtain on Moscovy and its annexed territories.
Спасибо и здоровья вам и ФАРИДЕЙЛИ! В Украине родилась НАЦИЯ, в России умирает. Остается на-се-ле-ние. Жаль очень мою Родину.....
Thanks for this thoughtful article. There is no doubt that Russia will not run out of soldiers, but Ukraine will, which is a matter of time. When it comes to equipment, the UKR is dependent on the west to a very high percentage. But the West will soon be at odds over how to confront the aggressor. With strong support from the US and Britain, the "New West in the East" confronts the "Old West in Central and Western Europe" in a way that frustrates the old powers-that-be. In summary: is it a matter of time before the Ukrainian resistance collapses?
No, it is not a matter of time until ukrainian resistance collapses, because it never will. And why should it? It is the end of the russian so-called federation for sure. we have a future of a new Israel and North Korea with Oil in Europe
I suspect that France, Germany, and the surprisingly willing Italy will be pulled along by those in the West (Canada, U.S., UK) and East (Poland, Romania, Baltics) and there will be no division. The Russian people's enthusiasm for war - diminishes monthly. The number of Russians killed breached the 100,000 level a few months ago - as it heads toward 400,000, 500,000, 1,000,000 deaths - due to the arrival in Ukraine of more and more long range missiles, F-16 planes, tanks superior to anything Russia's ever seen - the willingness of the Kremlin to continue will wilt.
There is already is a growing discussion and enthusiasm in America to dismantle Russia into many pieces - as the war goes increasingly badly for Russia, keeping Russia's territory entire, will become Putin's dominant motive - and fear of its fragmentation will be the chief reason Putin ceases to wage war in Ukraine and instead simply declares that he has taught Ukraine a lesson - and takes the few surviving soldiers back to Russia while he can.
All speculation with little evidence. Those who say A will argue with B... and say there is no nuclear threat from Russia. Unfortunately, these prophets and those who say that there is no faction in the US interested in splitting Russia to pieces will not be responsible and accountable if the opposite of what has been said happens. Facts will tell us the truth, and many more people will die by then.
Assessed the situation of the First World War in GER of that time, where until the end the military said they would win it. After millions of dead, the GER military accused the politicians of treason.
AGAIN: This senseless mutual killing must stop NOW!
The Austrian Peace Academy is an Austrian NGO that works for peace, freedom, the rule of law and human rights without religion playing a role in these aspects, but rather how ordinary people see life and the world.
Thanks to Farida once again for a wonderful column! Hello again to the Austrian Peace Academy! It's not only in America that Russia's diminution is anticipated. Moscow Times's columnists also recognize the near-inevitability of Russia's "defederation". Don't you agree that this will increase the peace of Europe?
From Moscow Times:
The Future Defederation of Russia
All empires eventually fall apart. The Russian Federation is next.
By Alexander Etkind
June 8, 2022
What happened to the Russian Empire? It disintegrated at the end of an imperialist war. What happened to the Soviet Union? It disintegrated at the end of the Cold War. What will happen to the Russian Federation?
The answer is obvious, even if it saddens many. Russian patriotism is such that even those who do not support the Kremlin regime are not ready to recognize the imperial nature of the present Russian state. Even those who consider the present Russian government unjust, incompetent or simply dangerous believe in the survival of the Russian Federation with its present borders. Even people like me, who wish Ukraine a military victory and the Russian rulers an international trial, are not ready to admit that this will consequently lead to the end of the country itself.
Collapse has long been feared and predicted. It could have been slowed down by taking advantage of the favorable economic situation, by relying on a competent government, a skillful diplomatic game or simply by counting on luck. The ruling party had managed to choose a name that reflected its deep fear of disintegration as well as its lack of other values: “United Russia.”
On the international scene, Russia’s partners did not want this disintegration. Some were grateful to the federation for ending еру dangerous and costly Cold War. Others simply resented the changes, whatever they might be, fearing those more than war itself. The collapse that threatens the federation will not happen because of foreign peoples or governments, but against their will and in contradiction to their predictions. It is likely that it will also happen against the will of the Russian population: such problems are not usually solved by voting.
For a long time — two decades — nothing really significant happened in Russia. Everything changed with the second Russian-Ukrainian war, a war that should never have been started by supporters of the idea of a united Russia. For those concerned about the preservation of the federation, the moment of truth has come.
The era of empires is long gone. The empires of the past collapsed after wars and uprisings and gave birth to a multitude of nation-states that emerged on the ruins of their former colonies. Polish-British writer Joseph Conrad held that there was not a single piece of land in the world that had not been colonized.
England, a former Roman colony, became the metropolis of a new empire. Poland, the center of gravity in Eastern Europe, was divided by three hostile states. East Prussia, a former metropolis and the place of royal coronations, became a colony. Earlier, much the same thing had happened to the land of the Tatars. History unfolds without any rules. Empires rise and fall, like waves on a stormy sea.
That said, almost all empires disappeared in the 20th century, in a process that has been called “decolonization.” Empires were defeated by other types of state: national and federal. Contemporary Russia, a nation-state, calls itself a federation, like Germany or Switzerland, when in fact it is behaving like an empire in its hour of decline.
What is the difference between a federation and an empire? A federation is defined by free entrance and exit of its members. Empires are maintained by force, while federations do not oppose their self-dissolution. In the early 20th century, this was called “the right to self-determination, including secession.” This principle was enshrined in the Declaration of the Rights of the Peoples of Russia, adopted by the Bolsheviks in November 1917. Later it disappeared from constitutional texts.
Some “composite” federations have disintegrated without the use of force, such as the Soviet Union and Czechoslovakia. But other cases of disintegration caused civil wars with international interference. This happened earlier in the United States, and it happened before our eyes in Yugoslavia: the forces were unequal, and one party imposed its will on the other. In still other cases, the disintegration was peaceful but wounded pride and aborted ambitions led to deferred violence. This is called revanchism, and it paves the way to a new war.
I am not calling for the collapse of the Russian Federation — I am predicting it, and that makes a difference. Again, the disintegration could have been avoided — it would have been enough not to start a war with Ukraine. But revanchism was stronger than caution. The collapse of this federation — a complex, artificial, highly unequal and increasingly unproductive community — will take place because of its leaders in Moscow, and only because of them.
Those who love the federation; those who think that if it were to disappear, people would be worse off; those who see the idea of a united Russia as the main and even the only political value — all should blame those and only those who started this war.
I am not calling for the collapse of the Russian Federation — I am predicting it...the disintegration could have been avoided — it would have been enough not to start a war with Ukraine.
How many parts will the federation break into, and will these parts correspond to the present delimitations of its republics and provinces? In each case, people will decide.
At the local level, the existing institutions, leaders and borders will have a role to play in the implementation of the “right to self-determination, including secession.” But there are many other determining factors: economic and cultural, domestic and international.
The new states will be diverse: some will be democratic, others authoritarian. All will be linked more to their neighbors, their trading and security partners, than to their old, worn-out and repulsive “kin.”
The territories that belonged to other national entities before becoming part of Russia after the Second World War (East Prussia, parts of Karelia, the Kuril Islands) will leave the federation with undisguised pleasure. Ethnic and religious tensions in particularly complex regions such as the Caucasus may lead to new wars.
With the collapse of the federation, social inequalities, a hallmark of Russia in recent decades, will increase further. The provinces producing raw materials will be richer, and other regions will be poorer. Enjoying freedom, their people will show new creativity. They will start trading in what only free societies can create. They will invent their comparative advantages, new and unique.
History will continue. Sooner or later the international community, which does not like upheavals, will take note of the changes and make an effort to avoid bloodshed.
At this point a peace conference will be held, modeled after the Paris conference of 1918-1919, organized by the victors of the First World War. Russia, which had signed a separate peace agreement in Brest-Litovsk, was not invited.
In the new peace treaty, the neighbors of the new countries will mediate the negotiations: Ukraine, China, Norway, Poland, Finland, Kazakhstan, and others.
Historically more successful federations, such as the European Union and the United States, will have their part to play.
A new Eurasian Treaty will complete the work begun at Versailles a century ago.
An earlier version of this article was published in Desk Russie.
Here's an article widely quoted in America - for peace to come to Europe, to stop further Russian invasions, killings, genocide whether in Chechnya or Syria, Ukraine or Moldova, Georgia or elsewhere, one must end Russia's capacity to commit further outrages. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/russia-putin-colonization-ukraine-chechnya/639428/?utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
Perhaps you meant to write the opposite of this? "those who say that there is no faction in the US interested in splitting Russia to pieces will not be responsible and accountable if the opposite of what has been said happens". I say there IS a growing number of people who realize that unless Russia is dismantled, war is a constant for Europe - whether in Moldova or Georgia, Ukraine or other Russia neighbors.
To reduce the likelihood of war, it's pretty clear that one must reduce the size of Russia. One of many of the good articles now appearing. https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-crimes-of-colonialism-putin-ukraine-war-empire-eurasia-lavrov-africa-soviet-union-11660076835?st=i1x0k7lzfpsgskb&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
So there will be no second wave of mobilisation because there is already a rolling consciption which is covered by the existing decree on partial mobilisation. At the same time there is a decree to increase the size of the armed forces by 30% so where does that 30% come from? Volunteers? So we have permanent war and permanent conscription and the kremlin is slowly drawing down the totalitarian curtain on Moscovy and its annexed territories.