A guy with a sociology diploma and about 20 years of market research practice here.
Several considerations need to be taken into account here.
First of all, polling in an authoritarian society is a bogus exercise. Primarily via phone interviews, where a respondent knows (s)he isn't anonymous.
Next, government-affiliated pollsters pride themselves on the fact that the age/gender structure of their sampling is top-notch but disclose other parameters very hesitantly. Only the occasional slip-ups by FOM agency revealed that the share of respondents who cite the Internet as their primary source of information plummeted (it was above 50% in 2021). So those responding are the TV viewers, and other population segments avoid polling.
Participation rates have plummeted. VTSIOM govt pollster cites on its pages that it has to dial 40'000-45'000 phone numbers a week to achieve the quota of 1'600 completes - that's a 3.5% success rate.
Also, the govt pollsters have repeatedly been found to test multiple wordings of the same questions. Some are phrased as a "confidence vote," where a respondent is asked to evaluate not a given topic by itself but Putin's decision on that topic.
Finally, there are govt pollsters who publish the results of the surveys where fieldwork is, err, questionable by itself. Take "Insomar," a new player in the field, which on September 20th published a "survey" of Kherson, Zaporizhia, "LNR" and "DNR" residents on the "referendum" to join Russia, with 80-sh claimed participation and approval rates. I leave it to the reader to decide whether it is believable or at least counts like a poll.
cannot agree more! in present Russia one has to think of smart ways to measure revealed preferences, and calling ppl out of the blue asking "do you support SMO" is definitely not one of those ways!
Ukraine's civilian airports were affected because in many cities the military fields are on the same territory. I don't need to ask "my friends in Kyiv" as I live here.
You don't read very well, either. I already mentioned that I have freinds who survived the occupation of Bucha. The issue in Bucha and other occupied towns was not shelling so much as it was the mass cruelty and theft that went on on the part of the russian forces. The minute they left Kherson, they started shelling the city.
The casualties at Yavoriv were never a secret.
You are obviously just a troll spouting the disinformation that you're being told to spout. This "convesation" is over.
The first chart seems to be mislabeled. The text says that those who thought the war was the right decision has declined from 71% to 60%, whereas the chart shows that these figures are for those who thought the war was UNnecessary, meaning that support is growing. I don't know what to make of this.
FAPSI used to conduct private polling since the early 1990s, VTSIOM, FOM and Insomar joined later. Presidential "UVP" is the leading client in the field. Those polls leak routinely from all of them, albeit since February they are harder to find. Same stuff happens in the US of A, where there is plenty of private polling by Dems and the GOP. It is mostly confidential, but could be found with some dedication. For example, I am a big admirer of Mark Penn's work (he was a key Dems pollster and Hillary's chief strategist) and read leaked reporting of his without having to Google that much.
Since Farida is very good at her job, her getting hands on that Russian polling is totally plausible.
Compared with the March leak of the shitty polling that was done by Russians in the early February on the Ukrainians' attitudes to Zelensky - this leak is benign, actually.
And you believe that a February Poll that said no one supports Zelensky was wrong even though 7 million Ukrainians left the country in the next month (and 7m in the years before)?
While the Levada polls run by a foreign owned company you think are fake.
Funny guy.
btw Farida is a complete idiot wholly repeating US talking points with no understanding herself
Your numbers are completely off the wall 7 million Ukrainians did NOT leave the country in the years before unless you go back to 1990. And of the 6 million mostly women and children who fled when the bombing started Feb 24, more than 35% returned. Fleeing bombing is hardly the same as supporting the president. Duh. Are you just trolling for fun or for money?
Don't be silly - it was 7m then and 7m this year. Of those that returned quite a few have left again now there is no electricity. You know this.
Plenty of men in London right now. There were plenty of men in Warsaw when I was there in March. Of course we all know why.
(btw no one was fleeing bombing except in Donbas - there was almost no bombing of Ukrainian held cities. Eg Bucha only got shelled while the Russians held it. Mariupol was only shelled by Ukrainians or where the Ukrainian troops were concentrated. Most of Ukraine saw no fighting or shelling at all until October. Upsetting you with truths is not trolling.)
Zelensky got massive support from Ukrainians when he said he wanted good relations with Russia - that is why they voted for him and not Poroshenko. Then he was persuaded to start a war with Russia - as you recall Zelensky was the one who said he was going to attack Donbas to bring it back into Russia. He still talks as if he started this war - but now he wants Crimea too.
Of course real Ukrainians want one of: to live at home in a safe and sane Ukraine, to live in a safe country outside Ukraine, or to live at home but in Russia. The first is not an option and not likely to be for some time.
Definitely a troll. Kyiv was attacked from Day 1 and almost all the bigger cities saw their airports bombed that day. We could even hear the attack on Ivano-Frankivsk from 50 kilometers away...but you obviously live in a different reality. For most women with kids, one bomb or 10 bombs is hardly the point. I have friends who lived through the ocupation of Bucha. Much of what you write either makes no sense or is quite distorted. Get a day job.
No all the civil airports were left alone except the one near Kiev.
I'm sure you could learn a lot if you talked to your friends in Kiev.
Like who shelled and when. Hint - the shelling all happened when Russia had already occupied Bucha.
Of course the bomb on Javoriv was truly massive - you'd have heard that - so did Nato. Their trainers and equipment was the target. Lots of victims at Javoriv - no one talks about it though because it was all military.
You have a lot to learn, but I suspect you really don't want to. Talk to your friends in Bucha.
My guess is they will refuse to discuss what really happened. Too dangerous for now.
A guy with a sociology diploma and about 20 years of market research practice here.
Several considerations need to be taken into account here.
First of all, polling in an authoritarian society is a bogus exercise. Primarily via phone interviews, where a respondent knows (s)he isn't anonymous.
Next, government-affiliated pollsters pride themselves on the fact that the age/gender structure of their sampling is top-notch but disclose other parameters very hesitantly. Only the occasional slip-ups by FOM agency revealed that the share of respondents who cite the Internet as their primary source of information plummeted (it was above 50% in 2021). So those responding are the TV viewers, and other population segments avoid polling.
Participation rates have plummeted. VTSIOM govt pollster cites on its pages that it has to dial 40'000-45'000 phone numbers a week to achieve the quota of 1'600 completes - that's a 3.5% success rate.
Also, the govt pollsters have repeatedly been found to test multiple wordings of the same questions. Some are phrased as a "confidence vote," where a respondent is asked to evaluate not a given topic by itself but Putin's decision on that topic.
Finally, there are govt pollsters who publish the results of the surveys where fieldwork is, err, questionable by itself. Take "Insomar," a new player in the field, which on September 20th published a "survey" of Kherson, Zaporizhia, "LNR" and "DNR" residents on the "referendum" to join Russia, with 80-sh claimed participation and approval rates. I leave it to the reader to decide whether it is believable or at least counts like a poll.
cannot agree more! in present Russia one has to think of smart ways to measure revealed preferences, and calling ppl out of the blue asking "do you support SMO" is definitely not one of those ways!
Ignorance is clearly bliss for you. Or well-paid.
Ukraine's civilian airports were affected because in many cities the military fields are on the same territory. I don't need to ask "my friends in Kyiv" as I live here.
You don't read very well, either. I already mentioned that I have freinds who survived the occupation of Bucha. The issue in Bucha and other occupied towns was not shelling so much as it was the mass cruelty and theft that went on on the part of the russian forces. The minute they left Kherson, they started shelling the city.
The casualties at Yavoriv were never a secret.
You are obviously just a troll spouting the disinformation that you're being told to spout. This "convesation" is over.
The first chart seems to be mislabeled. The text says that those who thought the war was the right decision has declined from 71% to 60%, whereas the chart shows that these figures are for those who thought the war was UNnecessary, meaning that support is growing. I don't know what to make of this.
Source: Unpublished survey conducted by a Kremlin-controlled polling service, obtained by Faridaily.
Do you really take us for idiots?
FAPSI used to conduct private polling since the early 1990s, VTSIOM, FOM and Insomar joined later. Presidential "UVP" is the leading client in the field. Those polls leak routinely from all of them, albeit since February they are harder to find. Same stuff happens in the US of A, where there is plenty of private polling by Dems and the GOP. It is mostly confidential, but could be found with some dedication. For example, I am a big admirer of Mark Penn's work (he was a key Dems pollster and Hillary's chief strategist) and read leaked reporting of his without having to Google that much.
Since Farida is very good at her job, her getting hands on that Russian polling is totally plausible.
Compared with the March leak of the shitty polling that was done by Russians in the early February on the Ukrainians' attitudes to Zelensky - this leak is benign, actually.
So the Kremlin is as leaky as the Dems.
And you believe that a February Poll that said no one supports Zelensky was wrong even though 7 million Ukrainians left the country in the next month (and 7m in the years before)?
While the Levada polls run by a foreign owned company you think are fake.
Funny guy.
btw Farida is a complete idiot wholly repeating US talking points with no understanding herself
Your numbers are completely off the wall 7 million Ukrainians did NOT leave the country in the years before unless you go back to 1990. And of the 6 million mostly women and children who fled when the bombing started Feb 24, more than 35% returned. Fleeing bombing is hardly the same as supporting the president. Duh. Are you just trolling for fun or for money?
Don't be silly - it was 7m then and 7m this year. Of those that returned quite a few have left again now there is no electricity. You know this.
Plenty of men in London right now. There were plenty of men in Warsaw when I was there in March. Of course we all know why.
(btw no one was fleeing bombing except in Donbas - there was almost no bombing of Ukrainian held cities. Eg Bucha only got shelled while the Russians held it. Mariupol was only shelled by Ukrainians or where the Ukrainian troops were concentrated. Most of Ukraine saw no fighting or shelling at all until October. Upsetting you with truths is not trolling.)
Zelensky got massive support from Ukrainians when he said he wanted good relations with Russia - that is why they voted for him and not Poroshenko. Then he was persuaded to start a war with Russia - as you recall Zelensky was the one who said he was going to attack Donbas to bring it back into Russia. He still talks as if he started this war - but now he wants Crimea too.
Of course real Ukrainians want one of: to live at home in a safe and sane Ukraine, to live in a safe country outside Ukraine, or to live at home but in Russia. The first is not an option and not likely to be for some time.
Definitely a troll. Kyiv was attacked from Day 1 and almost all the bigger cities saw their airports bombed that day. We could even hear the attack on Ivano-Frankivsk from 50 kilometers away...but you obviously live in a different reality. For most women with kids, one bomb or 10 bombs is hardly the point. I have friends who lived through the ocupation of Bucha. Much of what you write either makes no sense or is quite distorted. Get a day job.
No all the civil airports were left alone except the one near Kiev.
I'm sure you could learn a lot if you talked to your friends in Kiev.
Like who shelled and when. Hint - the shelling all happened when Russia had already occupied Bucha.
Of course the bomb on Javoriv was truly massive - you'd have heard that - so did Nato. Their trainers and equipment was the target. Lots of victims at Javoriv - no one talks about it though because it was all military.
You have a lot to learn, but I suspect you really don't want to. Talk to your friends in Bucha.
My guess is they will refuse to discuss what really happened. Too dangerous for now.