☦️ Russia steps up quiet campaign against abortions

Hello and welcome to your essential guide to Russian politics and economics—written by Farida Rustamova and Margarita Liutova. This time, we start with United States President Donald Trump’s decision Thursday to cancel a planned meeting with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, and impose sanctions on the Russian oil sector.

The U.S. decision to sanction Russian oil majors Lukoil and Rosneft will have “certain consequences” for the economy, admitted Putin. Together, Lukoil and Rosneft account for about 50 percent of Russia’s oil production.

While Putin called the new U.S. sanctions unfriendly, the tone of his remarks suggested he did not want (at least for now) to burn bridges with Washington. He avoided angry words, refrained from criticizing Trump, and said he was ready for further dialogue.

Taxes from oil and gas production account for about 22 percent of Russia’s budget revenues, but they are also the largest source of foreign currency for the economy. Hydrocarbon exports affect both the value of the ruble, and economic activity. However, whether revenues will drop due to the U.S. sanctions remains an open question. Much will depend on whether they are adhered to by major importers of Russian oil (India and China); whether Russian oil companies can find workarounds; and the oil price. The success of the U.S. plan to push Putin toward a compromise with Kyiv, therefore, also depends on these factors. We will cover the impact of U.S. sanctions on the Kremlin’s economic power, as well as how Putin’s inner circle perceive Trump’s change of position, in an upcoming newsletter.

This time, we focus on topics that, at first glance, may seem unrelated. But they are vivid illustrations of how life in Russia has changed since the start of the war:

• Momentum gathers behind a nationwide law to restrict the availability of abortions;

• Russian motorists protest plans to raise the controversial car scrappage fee.

We also look briefly at the designation of leading opposition figures as “terrorists,” and the Central Bank’s decision to cut interest rates by 0.5 percent.

⏳ This newsletter contains 1889 words – it will take about 9 minutes to read.

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Abortion restrictions

Putin’s obsession with Russia’s fertility rate, as well as the growing influence of Orthodox and conservative values in the Kremlin, is likely to lead to anti-abortion legislation.

Russia appears to be moving toward a nationwide law to ban the “coercement” of women into abortions amid Putin’s ongoing fixation on the country’s demographic crisis. Such a law was publicly backed last week by a State Council commission.

“Fertility is his [Putin’s] fetish,” an official who discusses demographic issues with the Russian leader told Faridaily.

As many as 25 Russian regions have introduced such a law over the last two years, but passing it at a national level would mark a significant acceleration in Russia’s lurch toward embracing a pro-life agenda. It would also illustrate—yet again—the growing power of Orthodox, and conservative, groups over policymaking.

What, though, does “coercing” people into abortions mean? In existing regional laws, it’s defined as “actions aimed at compelling a pregnant woman to terminate her pregnancy through persuasion, offers, bribery, or deception.” In practice, it’s used to pressure private clinics (where abortions are quicker and easier to get than in the state system) to stop offering the service. Penalties for violating the existing laws include fines of up to 5,000 rubles ($61) for individuals, and 500,000 rubles for organizations.

Restricting abortions is one of several crude methods being used to combat the country’s demographic crisis—another is payments to teenage mothers, including those who are still in high school. One source close to the government said Putin sees increasing the birth rate as a task of historical significance. Last year, Putin told officials to “start and end their day thinking about fertility.”

The president’s obsession means increasing the fertility rate remains a priority for officials at all levels, who are likely to continue to lobby for measures short of an outright abortion ban: for example, PR campaigns against abortion, banning “childfree propaganda,” introducing (and increasing) fines for “coercing” people into abortions, and pre-abortion counseling.

Fertility rates are even one of the metrics the Kremlin uses to assess governors. “Regions actively exchange practices. Someone bold tries something, others watch: no backlash? Let’s try it too,” said a source close to the governor in one of Russia’s northern regions, describing a surge in fertility-boosting measures.

However, the Kremlin also knows it has to tread carefully when it comes to abortions. Firstly, Russians are opposed to a full ban, according to Kremlin polling described to Faridaily. “This idea [of a full ban] was not supported at the highest level—the president and his administration,” said an official who works on demography policymaking. who suggested the reason was a wariness about the public response. A source in the Ministry of Health confirmed this. “Banning abortions is too risky,” he said, “the population won’t accept it.” Secondly, access to abortion is protected by the Russian constitution, and laws already on the statute books. Attempts to change legislation to ban abortions would attract nationwide attention, with unpredictable consequences.

The campaign for abortion restrictions is led by the Russian Orthodox Church, and influential conservatives (like, for example, tycoon Konstantin Malofeev). Opposing them are officials who are wary of a return to illegal abortions, and the resulting increased mortality. Aware of how divisive the topic can be, Putin rarely addresses the issue in public.

Women are the most vocal opponents of abortion bans, according to a source involved in demographic policymaking. Russian polling agencies, seemingly aware of the Kremlin’s position, publish little data on attitudes toward abortion. However, a December 2023 poll by the Kremlin-aligned FOM agency showed 75 percent of women, and 54 percent of men, oppose an abortion ban. In an October 2024 poll by FOM, when asked, “Which fertility-boosting measures are most effective?” 26 percent said increased state financial support for families (and only 1 percent said banning abortions).

Some officials told Faridaily they had even been chided by relatives for backing controversial pro-fertility measures. “My 75-year-old mother turned up and started telling me off,” said the official working on demographic policymaking. “She said: ‘Don’t meddle in that sort of thing; it’s a woman’s business’.”

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