Putin signals to the Russian elite not to expect a quick peace in Ukraine
The message from Putin reflects a prevailing mood of caution in the Russian elite when it comes to Washington’s volte face.
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Since returning to the White House, President Donald Trump has turned U.S. foreign policy on its head by seeking a rapprochement with Russia. Not only has he spoken several times to Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone, the two men have also publicly traded compliments.
Inside the Russian elite, however, the mood music is not so hopeful. Officials are concerned and suspicious about Washington’s sudden change of tune. Some of our sources even fear that we are on the brink of a new round of confrontation between the U.S. and Russia—rather than an era of cooperation and friendship.
While all the Kremlin’s attention is focused on trying to cultivate Trump, and restore ties with Washington, other political issues in Russia have been put to one side—and officials are being careful about what they say in public. Russian state propaganda was even ordered to stop portraying the U.S. as Russia’s number one foe.
Just hours before his March 18 phone call with Trump, Putin held a behind-closed-doors meeting with a group of tycoons and influential chief executives. The meeting lasted just under an hour, and the main topics of discussion were the war in Ukraine, and the Russia-U.S. relationship. For many of those in attendance, it was a rare opportunity to get a sense of how the negotiations with the U.S. were going, as well as to assess the chance of achieving peace in Ukraine.
Some of those who were there—who spoke to us on the condition that we did not reveal their identities—said Putin made it clear to them that any peace process would be a lengthy affair. Nor did he offer any guarantee that it would be successful. This was strikingly different from the much rosier assessments we have routinely heard from U.S. officials.
“Putin advised us not to be naïve, and to try and understand the sheer quantity of different people and different interests involved,” said one of our sources. “This whole behemoth [of war and Western sanctions] is not easy to bring to a halt,” said another attendee at the meeting, paraphrasing Putin. He added that Putin appeared “positive,” but that there was no “unbridled optimism it would be possible [to reach a deal].”
Indeed, the message from Putin appeared to reflect a prevailing mood of caution in the Russian elite when it comes to Washington’s volte face.
Nobody in the corridors of power in Russia expected Trump to take such a pro-Russian position, and they now fear he could be trying to set a trap. “My expectations from Trump are one of two extremes: either there will be a big agreement, or we will quarrel spectacularly and the West will pressure us even more,” said a top Russian official who regularly meets with Putin.
“The situation is unpredictable,” said another source, who has worked with Putin for more than 20 years. He believes that Trump is actually just pursuing his own interests—and if Moscow frustrates him, the Russia-U.S. relationship could fracture further. “He could explode at any moment. I’m very afraid of Trump’s radical behavior,” the source said.
When it comes to Putin’s strategy, our sources said it appeared to be simple. The Russian president believes he has a good handle on Trump's character, and can charm him into ending the war on Russia’s terms. “But he [Putin] is also prepared to wage war for a century,” said a source familiar with the negotiations. “Putin’s idea to wait until Ukraine collapses is not such a stupid one.”
With Putin’s attention fixed on Kyiv and Washington, much of Russia’s more routine political life seems to have ground to a halt. Officials at many levels are frozen in anticipation of an outcome to negotiations.
In the two months since Trump’s inauguration, Putin has appeared much less often in public. The Kremlin has released more of the pre-recorded videos of Putin meeting officials than usual—indirect evidence of how Putin is consumed with the tasks of rebuilding the Russia-U.S. relationship, bolstering his negotiating position, and ensuring the intensity of the fighting on the battlefields of Ukraine does not slacken ahead of a ceasefire.
Putin has even altered his schedule several times in order to be able to talk to Trump, and, after their first phone call, he postponed his annual state-of-the-nation address to the Federal Assembly that is mandated under the constitution. This speech is used to make major political announcements, and sees Putin outline what he wants parliament and the government to achieve over the course of the coming year. It only gets delayed very rarely—the last time it happened was in 2022 following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
“The contents of the economic part of the address is obvious, as are the major social issues. But we will only understand how we can live in a political sense after [a Putin meeting with Trump],” said a source involved in the preparations for the speech. “You need some political clarity for the address. And, right now, we don’t know whether we will have war, or peace,” said a former official.
For the moment, no date has been set for a face-to-face meeting between Trump and Putin. There were some media reports that this could take place at the end of February—but it did not happen.
Amid the uncertainty, even the pace of work in the Russian parliament has slowed. Fewer laws have been passed, and deputies are unwilling to comment on foreign policy. “It’s gone quiet everywhere in domestic politics,” said one State Duma deputy. Last month, outspoken deputy Andrei Gurulev lost his position on a key parliamentary committee in an apparent warning to officials to watch what they said to the media. Deputies have also been asked to be cautious about speaking publicly about the ongoing U.S.-Russia negotiations.
Trump’s overtures have even prompted the Kremlin to adjust the tenor of Russian state propaganda. There are no longer claims on state-owned television that the U.S. is seeking to start World War Three, or trying to destroy Russia. Instead, France and the United Kingdom—who support further military support for Ukraine—are being portrayed as Russia’s worst enemies.
Several of our sources said the current situation was similar to the one in the months leading up to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. “Everyone is trying to guess what’s going on inside Putin’s head,” said the source close to the U.S.-Russia negotiations. “Either he doesn’t say anything to anyone, or he tells everyone different things.”
Translated and edited by Howard Amos
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