Putin signals to the Russian elite not to expect a quick peace in Ukraine
The message from Putin reflects a prevailing mood of caution in the Russian elite when it comes to Washington’s volte face.
Since returning to the White House, President Donald Trump has turned U.S. foreign policy on its head by seeking a rapprochement with Russia. Not only has he spoken several times to Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone, the two men have also publicly traded compliments.
Inside the Russian elite, however, the mood music is not so hopeful. Officials are concerned and suspicious about Washington’s sudden change of tune. Some of our sources even fear that we are on the brink of a new round of confrontation between the U.S. and Russia—rather than an era of cooperation and friendship.
While all the Kremlin’s attention is focused on trying to cultivate Trump, and restore ties with Washington, other political issues in Russia have been put to one side—and officials are being careful about what they say in public. Russian state propaganda was even ordered to stop portraying the U.S. as Russia’s number one foe.
Just hours before his March 18 phone call with Trump, Putin held a behind-closed-doors meeting with a group of tycoons and influential chief executives. The meeting lasted just under an hour, and the main topics of discussion were the war in Ukraine, and the Russia-U.S. relationship. For many of those in attendance, it was a rare opportunity to get a sense of how the negotiations with the U.S. were going, as well as to assess the chance of achieving peace in Ukraine.
Some of those who were there—who spoke to us on the condition that we did not reveal their identities—said Putin made it clear to them that any peace process would be a lengthy affair. Nor did he offer any guarantee that it would be successful. This was strikingly different from the much rosier assessments we have routinely heard from U.S. officials.
“Putin advised us not to be naïve, and to try and understand the sheer quantity of different people and different interests involved,” said one of our sources. “This whole behemoth [of war and Western sanctions] is not easy to bring to a halt,” said another attendee at the meeting, paraphrasing Putin. He added that Putin appeared “positive,” but that there was no “unbridled optimism it would be possible [to reach a deal].”
Indeed, the message from Putin appeared to reflect a prevailing mood of caution in the Russian elite when it comes to Washington’s volte face.
Nobody in the corridors of power in Russia expected Trump to take such a pro-Russian position, and they now fear he could be trying to set a trap. “My expectations from Trump are one of two extremes: either there will be a big agreement, or we will quarrel spectacularly and the West will pressure us even more,” said a top Russian official who regularly meets with Putin.
“The situation is unpredictable,” said another source, who has worked with Putin for more than 20 years. He believes that Trump is actually just pursuing his own interests—and if Moscow frustrates him, the Russia-U.S. relationship could fracture further. “He could explode at any moment. I’m very afraid of Trump’s radical behavior,” the source said.
When it comes to Putin’s strategy, our sources said it appeared to be simple. The Russian president believes he has a good handle on Trump's character, and can charm him into ending the war on Russia’s terms. “But he [Putin] is also prepared to wage war for a century,” said a source familiar with the negotiations. “Putin’s idea to wait until Ukraine collapses is not such a stupid one.”
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